It’s a cinch Kamala Harris will have an opponent on the November 2016 ballot. Much less certain is whether her opponent will be any more threatening than Elizabeth Emken was to Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the 2012 Senate primary.
One by one, potentially formidable opponents to the election of Ms. Harris, the state attorney general and previously district attorney of San Francisco, have fallen by the wayside since early January.
Billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer took himself out early. So did state Treasurer John Chiang, followed by former Los Angeles Mayor Villaraigosa and Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, the former San Francisco mayor who opted instead to run for governor in 2018. Then former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice took herself out, possibly because she would have had to face questions about her role in deceptions that led to the war in Iraq. Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin also nixed a run.
Any one of those four fellow Democrats and two Republicans could have posed a threat for Ms. Harris’s bid to replace the retiring Sen. Barbara Boxer. Ms. Harris doesn’t look particularly intimidating. She got to work quickly on the Senate race, declaring for the job almost immediately after Ms. Boxer announced her impending retirement.
Starting with a Splash
Before anyone else had done much, she staged high-profile fund-raisers in Bel Air, Long Beach, San Francisco and Washington D.C. At the same time, she quickly got endorsements from dozens of prominent Democrats. Ms. Harris, who handily won reelection as attorney general last fall before starting this run, was helped when her investigators raided the home of the disgraced Michael Peevey, former head of the state Public Utilities Commission.
Investigating Mr. Peevey, who drew praise from Gov. Brown and other major Democrats even as his alleged corruption became more and more evident, has made Ms. Harris seem politically independent and a tough backer of consumer interests.
Put all this together, and she’s a pretty intimidating candidate.
Yes, there still is the possibility of someone else substantial getting in against Ms. Harris, whose name was recognized by only 40 percent of likely voters in one late-winter poll. So far, the only declared opponent is Republican Assemblyman Rocky Chavez of San Diego County.
Latecomers Awaited
Several Democratic congressional veterans, realizing that gerrymandering in other states has made it very difficult for their party to regain control of the House of Representatives, also might risk making this run.
While Ms. Harris’s early entrance, bully pulpit as attorney general and her early endorsements strengthen her, she lacks the huge war chest used so often by senatorial candidates like Ms. Feinstein, Alan Cranston and Pete Wilson to scare off significant opposition. Mr. Newsom, who quickly raised $800,000 this winter to run for governor atop the $3 million left in his campaign kitty after last year’s run for reelection, will plainly try to employ financial intimidation against all but billionaires when his campaign gets serious two years from now.
Ms. Harris didn’t have that kind of money before she began raising new funds and has not made a formal financial report. She had just $1.3 million in her campaign account when her reelection run ended last fall, and it’s unclear how much of that is transferable to a federal campaign.
By contrast, Burbank Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff had $2.1 million in his war chest at last report, and all of it could be used for a Senate run if he opts for that over reelection. Mr. Schiff has said he thinks it’s time a credible Southern California candidate challenged the state’s San Francisco-based Democratic power elite, including Sen. Dianne Feinstein, Mr. Newsom, Ms. Harris, party chairman John Burton and Gov. Brown, with his base across the Bay in nearby Oakland.
Mr. Villaraigosa, with strong appeal among Latino voters, had appeared poised to be that kind of candidate before pulling out. Another Latino might yet emerge as a Harris challenger, with Orange County Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez and Xavier Becerra of East Los Angeles, part of the House Democratic leadership, still possibilities.
For now, Ms. Harris dominates this race, in part because she got in early and acted fast. Unless someone else acts soon, it figures to be more coronation than contest.
Mr. Elias is author of the current book “The Burzynski Breakthrough: The Most Promising Cancer Treatment and the Government’s Campaign to Squelch It,” now available in an updated second edition. His email address is tdelias@aol.com